The request
{
"name": "wever_uncertainty-evidence-gap-check",
"arguments": {
"claims": [
{
"id": "c1",
"claim": "Churn falls to 3% after the price change.",
"confidence": 85,
"load_bearing": true,
"evidence": [
"e1"
]
},
{
"id": "c2",
"claim": "Enterprise accounts accept the new tier.",
"confidence": 70,
"load_bearing": true,
"evidence": [
"e2"
]
},
{
"id": "c3",
"claim": "Support volume stays flat.",
"confidence": 60,
"load_bearing": false,
"evidence": [
"e3"
]
}
],
"evidence": [
{
"id": "e1",
"source": "Three customer interviews",
"support": "thin",
"direct": true
},
{
"id": "e2",
"source": "The 2025 pricing test with 400 enterprise accounts",
"support": "strong",
"direct": true
},
{
"id": "e3",
"source": "Support volume after the 2024 price change",
"support": "moderate",
"direct": false
}
]
}
}What the report returns
Verdict: confidence_outruns_evidence.
| Finding, confidence exceeds evidence | 1 claim states more confidence than its cited evidence supports: c1 (stated 85%, thin support, ceiling 60%). |
|---|
| Finding, load bearing thin | 1 load-bearing claim rests on thin evidence only: c1 (e1). |
|---|
| Finding, indirect only | 1 claim rests only on evidence that bears on it indirectly: c3. |
|---|
| Fix, confidence exceeds evidence | Lower each confidence to what its cited evidence supports, or cite stronger evidence for the claim. |
|---|
| Fix, load bearing thin | Find stronger evidence for every claim the answer rests on, or state beside the answer that it rests on thin evidence. |
|---|
| Fix, indirect only | Add evidence that bears on the claim directly, or state that the support is by analogy. |
|---|
The stated confidence outruns the evidence: confidence exceeds evidence and load bearing thin.
The pricing plan rests on the churn claim, and the churn claim states 85% on three customer interviews, which the agent itself records as thin support. Thin support carries at most 60%, so the confidence outruns its evidence, and a load-bearing claim on thin evidence holds the answer up. The enterprise claim states 70% on a pricing test with 400 accounts, well within strong support, so it reads as backed. The support volume claim leans on the 2024 price change, which bears on it only by analogy. Lowering the churn confidence to 60% or citing the pricing test cohort's churn figures backs the answer.